Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
