Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
